Top five vulnerable statewide incumbents

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness.

Then, Warwick Sabin — president and CEO of Deep South Today, the nonprofit news network that includes the Pulitzer Prize-winning Mississippi Today, New Orleans' Verite News, and Lafayette's The Current — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss what may be the most promising model for saving local journalism in America. Sabin, a former three-term Arkansas state legislator and publisher of the Oxford American magazine, explains how he's building a network of nonprofit newsrooms across the Deep South from scratch, starting with Mississippi Today — the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi, now the largest in the state — and expanding into Louisiana and soon Arkansas. He describes the wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model, using the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's decline as a case study, and argues that the nonprofit approach has a critical advantage: starting fresh means avoiding the crushing legacy costs that buried traditional papers, and all revenue gets reinvested directly into the news product. They make the case that service journalism — covering schools, local government, youth sports — is what creates the trust and audience that makes the "sexy" investigative work possible, pointing to the fact that local journalists in his network helped exonerate a man on death row in Mississippi.

The conversation turns to what makes local journalism viable and essential in 2026 and beyond. Sabin argues that human connection to journalists will be the defining differentiator in the age of AI — people won't trust reporters who aren't part of their local community — while acknowledging that AI tools can make reporting dramatically more efficient. He discusses using local and youth sports as a community bonding agent in an era where it's one of the few areas where communities can avoid politics, notes that Mississippi produces terrific writers who need platforms, and emphasizes that having video and audio components is now critical for any news operation. They explore the potential for rebuilding a national network of nonprofit newspapers, discuss which communities are ripe for expansion and make the case that local journalism should be treated as a civic institution deserving of public-private partnership. Sabin's model is free to access, civic-minded, and designed to help citizens survive and thrive in their communities — exactly what Local News Day on April 9th is designed to champion.

Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande!

09:00 Trump is running out of patience, looking for off-ramp in Iran

10:15 Trump’s definition of victory keeps changing

11:00 Every path forward in Iran carries risks

11:30 We continue to send more troops for potential escalation

12:45 Iran will have a say over who can travel through the Strait of Hormuz

13:15 Gen. Mattis believes Iran will claim control over Strait if U.S. retreats

16:00 The military has had strategic victory, but can only do so much

16:45 Regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly

18:00 Both sides are stuck, so now the war becomes about perception

18:45 Gulf states could hedge their security partnerships, lean to China

19:30 Trump hollowed out expertise & surrounded himself with sycophants

20:30 Nobody in Trump’s orbit want to own this war

21:30 Standing with the U.S. is politically unpopular in allied countries

23:00 Trump chose to weaken America’s alliance prior to launching war

23:45 War is increasingly unpopular at home

25:00 Support for Trump among independents is in the low 20’s

26:30 The MAGA brand is now more toxic with voters than Republican brand

27:30 War could be the death knell for the MAGA brand

28:45 Trump has always bounced back, but he may not be able to this time

37:00 Warwick Sabin joins the Chuck ToddCast

38:30 Creating the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi

41:30 What went wrong with the Jackson Clarion-Ledger?

43:30 There’s been a wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model

45:00 Potential for rebuilding a national network of newspapers?

46:15 In small markets, newspapers have to be hyper efficient

48:15 Service journalism is what creates the opportunity for “sexy” journalism

49:15 Local journalists exonerated a man on death row in Mississippi

50:15 Using local and youth sports as a community bond

52:00 Local sports is the one area where communities can avoid politics

53:30 Mississippi produces terrific writers

54:30 Having a video/audio component for reporting is critical

56:00 Human connection to journalists will be important in age of AI

58:00 People won’t trust journalists that aren’t part of their local community

59:45 AI tools can make reporting easier and more efficient

1:01:15 What does a community need to have to become part of your network?

1:02:30 Arkansas Democrat Gazette weathered the storm better than most

1:04:30 Arkansas is in need of a local news network

1:05:45 Bill Clinton’s election kept Walmart’s headquarters in Arkansas

1:08:00 Northwest Arkansas produced some of America’s biggest companies

1:11:00 How much do you factor in local resources when launching a new paper?

1:13:00 What other places have you looked at to expand the network?

1:15:00 Model is doing civic minded journalism that is free to access

1:16:00 Starting from scratch, avoiding legacy costs is a huge boon

1:18:30 All the revenue they generate gets invested back into the news product

1:20:00 Newspapers & local journalism are a civic institution

1:22:00 Local journalism should be a public/private partnership

1:23:00 It is incredibly difficult to deliver straight news in smaller communities

1:23:45 What do you hope to get out of Local News Day?

1:26:30 Local journalism can help citizens survive and thrive in their communities

1:27:30 Is print dead, or is there a viable path for it?

1:29:15 What has the gutting of local & public radio meant for Mississippi? 

1:33:00 ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose in 2026

1:34:15 #1 John Cornyn

1:35:45 #2 Dan McKee

1:38:00 #3 Bill Cassidy

1:40:30 #4 Susan Collins

1:44:30 #5 Pete Ricketts

1:45:45 Ask Chuck

1:46:00 John Hickenlooper is out. Has another state had so many 1-term dropouts?

1:50:15 Would Hilary Clinton have won the presidency if the nominee in a different year?

1:54:00 Any pop culture quotes that you love that carry weight politically?

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