Paper: Optimal market mix for trend followers

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, and how geopolitical shocks ripple through quantitative strategies. They unpack the role of QIS, the evolving structure of energy markets, and why some trends are holding while others fade. The conversation also challenges common assumptions about diversification, model design, and the growing influence of options markets. Rather than reacting to headlines, this episode focuses on how systematic investors interpret changing conditions and adapt without abandoning discipline.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 - Introduction to systematic investing and current market backdrop

01:03 - 2026 sentiment shifts from optimism to uncertainty

03:04 - Commodity curve trades and recent QIS drawdowns

08:34 - Why gas and oil behave very differently in markets

11:17 - Media narratives vs actual CTA performance

14:03 - Rising stagflation concerns and interest rate volatility

18:08 - Trend following performance and positioning update

27:06 - Do options markets impact trend following models

38:28 - Core vs broad market universes in trend strategies

48:46 - Can AI reshape systematic research workflows

55:23 - Quant equity resurgence and lessons from past drawdowns

01:02:19 - Macro uncertainty and what drives trends going forward

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