Why Xi May Avoid a Risky Invasion

Eyck Freymann — Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of the new book Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a riveting conversation about the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint at a moment when America is stretched dangerously thin by the Iran war. Freymann argues that the remainder of Trump's term represents a unique window of opportunity for Xi Jinping to move on Taiwan, not necessarily through a dramatic amphibious invasion — which Taiwan's geography makes incredibly difficult and which would result in the U.S. destroying China's navy and air force in a high-intensity conflict — but through coercion, quarantine, or political manipulation designed to change Taiwan's orientation without firing a shot. He explains that Taiwan is more than a strategic asset for China: it's a democratic success story that represents a shining alternative to CCP rule, making it the lynchpin of Xi's "national rejuvenation" project. Freymann unpacks Xi's recent purges of top military leaders as a sign that he now has full control of the PLA, notes that Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China's inner circle, and warns that Xi may issue direct threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election — a pattern of coercion that the U.S. must develop tools to deter.

The conversation turns to what a realistic defense strategy looks like — and what the Iran war is teaching Beijing in real time. Freymann pushes back on war games that show China winning, arguing they aren't a crystal ball and that the U.S. retains significant advantages in cyber warfare and conventional naval power. But he warns that China is more likely to pursue a "quarantine" rather than a full blockade — a semantic distinction with enormous legal and strategic implications, since a blockade would turn the entire world against China while a quarantine creates more ambiguity. He notes that China is carefully studying both Russia's failures in Ukraine and America's struggles in Iran to learn what not to do. His bottom line: in the best-case scenario, we're headed for another cold war — but China doesn't actually want to fight the United States because the risks are far too high, and the American public, already exhausted by Iran, has zero appetite for another conflict.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Eyck Freymann joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:00 What is the strategy for defending Taiwan?

02:45 The U.S. has a long-standing “One China” policy

03:45 The goal is to let the Taiwan situation get resolved peacefully

05:15 What’s the practical reason the Chinese want Taiwan so badly?

05:45 Taiwan is a democratic success story, shining alternative to CCP

06:45 Taiwan’s geography makes an invasion incredibly difficult

08:15 If China can take Taiwan, other dominoes in the region could fall

09:00 Taiwan is a “nice to have” not “need to have” for China

10:30 China’s project is “national rejuvenation”, Taiwan is lynchpin of that

12:00 U.S. stretched thin, best chance for China is while Trump is president?

13:15 Remainder of Trump’s term is unique opportunity for Xi

15:45 How should we read Xi’s purges of top military leaders?

17:15 Xi Jinping doesn’t give many interviews, remains an enigma

20:00 Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China

21:45 Xi is in full control of the PLA after the military purges

22:45 The last thing you want to be in CCP is the rumored successor to Xi

24:00 Xi may issue threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election

26:30 How does the U.S. deter coercion of Taiwan by China?

27:45 War games showing China wins more often are not a crystal ball for reality

28:30 A high intensity war would result in the U.S. destroying PLA navy & air force

29:15 U.S. has advantage over China in cyber warfare

30:45 U.S. can stabilize the situation by responding proportionally

32:00 China thinks they can win a PR war, change Taiwan politically in their favor

33:30 American public has no appetite for war, Iran war unpopular from Day 1

35:00 Could Taiwanese who want independence just flee the country?

37:15 Occupying Taipei would make Kabul & Mosul look like child’s play

38:15 A blockade of Taiwan is Plan B, not Plan A

39:30 A blockade would turn the entire world against China

40:15 China more likely to “quarantine” Taiwan than blockade

42:00 China has grown a middle class that will demand services & stability

43:30 China’s economic ties to other countries create their own deterrence

46:00 China is 1/3rd of world manufacturing, in every global supply chain

47:45 Some version of TPP is coming back because we don’t have a choice

49:30 In the best case scenario, we’re headed for another cold war

52:00 Invading via the Taiwan strait is incredibly difficult

53:00 Chinese military is untested, could they “test” somewhere else?

53:45 China is taking lessons from Russia in Ukraine & U.S. in Iran

55:00 China doesn’t want to fight the U.S. - It’s far too risky

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