Capability vs. Willingness: Power Projection Tradeoffs

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Three Buddy Problem - Episode 87: We wake up to news of U.S./Israel military action against Iran and the expected fallout, including Tehran’s cyber capabilities and proxy risks. Plus: Anthropic’s clash with the Pentagon over AI use in warfare, market shockwaves from AI-driven security tools, mass layoffs tied to automation, Trenchant exec sentencing and sanctions in the exploit trade, and fresh questions around Cisco’s SD-WAN breach and supply-chain trust.

Cast: Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, Ryan Naraine and Costin Raiu.

Links:

• Transcript (unedited, AI-generated)
• Thinkst Canary
• Live updates: US and Israel strike Iran
• Episode 80: Hamid Kashfi on the situation in Iran
• ‘Incoherent’: Hegseth’s Anthropic ultimatum confounds AI policymakers
• Anthropic Claude AI Security Tool Wipes Out Over $15 Billion From Cybersecurity Stocks
• CrowdStrike CEO responds to stock price hit
• Designation of Zero-Day Exploits Broker for Theft of U.S. Trade Secrets
• Treasury Sanctions Exploit Broker Network for Theft and Sale of U.S. Government Cyber Tools
• Trenchant Exec Who Sold Zero-Day Exploits to Russian Buyer Sentenced to 7 Years in Prison
• AWS says AI-augmented threat actor accesses FortiGate devices at scale
• Active exploitation of Cisco Catalyst SD-WAN by UAT-8616
• Anthropic Claud Code Security
• Anthropic: Detecting and preventing distillation attacks
• GTIG AI Threat Tracker: Distillation, Experimentation, and (Continued) Integration of AI for Adversarial Use
• iPhone and iPad approved to handle classified NATO information
• Fortinet Achieves Certification for Secure Product Development
• Cisco SD-WAN threat hunting guide
• TLPBLACK
• NEBULA:FOG 2026 | AI x Security Hackathon
• RE//verse Conference