PCE Expectations and Fed Implications

In this episode of J.P. Morgan’s Making Sense, Phoebe White, a senior U.S. rates strategist and head of U.S. inflation strategy, sits down with senior economist Mike Hanson to unpack the January CPI report and the inflation outlook for 2026. They discuss why inflation may hover near 3% this year, the impact of tariffs, the gradual cooling in rents, and how differences between the CPI and PCE could inform the Fed’s path. The conversation also touches on energy and food prices, data quality concerns at the BLS and much more.

This episode was recorded on February 18, 2026. 

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