Ad break

AI may be the most powerful economic force since the internet, but its true impact remains deeply uncertain.

Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg and a macroeconomist by training, joins us to unpack how AI is reshaping markets, investment cycles, and economic thinking. We explore whether this is just another bubble or something far more structural.

We dive into AI-driven capex, productivity illusions, labor market shifts, inflation dynamics, and whether AI can actually solve the U.S. debt problem. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:21 AI’s Macro Impact

06:48 Historical Tech Bubbles

10:25 AI Capex Drives Growth

14:13 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

15:23 How Big Can The Bubble Get?

20:14 Agentic AI Compute Demand

24:10 AI Is Too Cheap

28:15 Productivity Mirage

33:03 Ads (Fidelity Crypto)

34:24 Fed Policy And AI

41:02 Can AI Fix Debt?

47:34 Physical World Bottlenecks

49:47 The Future Of Economics

FOLLOW STEVE HOU

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/stevehou

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

SPONSORS

› FIDELITY CRYPTO

This episode is brought to you by Fidelity Crypto. Learn more at Fidelity.com/crypto

Fidelity Crypto was built in-house with over a dozen years of crypto experience. So you can trade crypto and stocks in one place at Fidelity, backed by industry-leading security. Fidelity Crypto. We're here to help you feel good about investing in crypto.

Crypto is offered by Fidelity Digital Assets, NA, is not insured by FDIC or SIPC and includes risk of complete loss. Securities offered by Fidelity Brokerage Services, LLC. Member NYSE, SIPC.

https://www.fidelity.com/crypto/trading

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.