From the New World cover image

Arnold Kling: How Economics Starts with Specialization

From the New World

00:00

The Good Hearts Law Problem

Most of the time I think like most people are more wrong than the prediction market but that doesn't mean that no one is more right than the predictionmarket right yeah. You have a good hearts law problem that you know at some point if people start paying close attention to it people start figuring out how to game it even though they're not great at predicting wait what what's the good hearts law Problem in this place in caseHow does it get gamed well of the classic fear when Robin was talking about prediction for terrorism that somebody would have an incentive to induce terrorist attacks to make a profit.

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