Runoff history favors Paxton

Chuck Todd breaks down the Texas primary results and finds a political landscape that should terrify the Republican establishment. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed to a runoff on the GOP side, but the headline number is stunning: Democrats posted a higher overall vote total than Republicans in the Texas primary, a seismic signal in what has long been the country's biggest red state. He credits Talarico's viral Colbert moment with giving him a massive boost, notes that Latino voters broke decisively for Talarico over Jasmine Crockett — who ran an unconventional campaign and is unlikely to concede quickly — and argues that a Paxton vs. Talarico general election would genuinely put Texas in play. He walks through the strategic calculus: history favors Paxton in a runoff, Cornyn has outperformed polling but a Cornyn nomination would draw less national Democratic investment in the race, and Democrats should have the budget to compete in Texas regardless — because Texas is "nice to have" for Democrats but "must have" for Republicans, and if Democrats win even once there, it opens the floodgates. He also flags Dan Crenshaw losing after failing to secure Trump's endorsement, the razor-thin two-vote margin for the state senate campaign in North Carolina, and a broader pattern of bad developments piling up for the GOP — capped by Trump stoking voter skepticism with an unpopular Iran war. His verdict: this is the worst possible start to an election cycle for Republicans, because it's easy to start a war and very hard to end one.

Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Texas statewide elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 Ken Paxton & John Cornyn headed to a runoff

02:30 Democrats had a higher vote total than Republicans in Texas primary

03:45 Talarico’s moment with Stephen Colbert gave him a huge boost

05:00 Several house races headed to a run off

07:00 Latino voters broke fairly decisively for Talarico

07:45 Crockett didn’t run a conventional campaign

08:30 Crockett is unlikely to concede quickly

10:00 We never got the full story on the Colbert moment

11:15 Fighter vs Uniter is the divide amongst Democrats

13:00 If Cornyn can stay ahead of Paxton, that will matter to Trump

14:30 Talarico being the nominee will make establishment Republicans nervous

16:00 History says it’s more likely that Paxton wins the runoff 

18:00 Cornyn has outperformed the polling

18:30 With Paxton & Talarico as the nominees, Texas is in play 

19:30 Do senate Democrats play in the Republican runoff?

20:30 If it’s Cornyn vs. Talarico, the national party won’t help Talarico as much

22:00 Will Dems spend on Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska?

23:15 Dems should have the budget to target Texas

24:00 Texas is “nice to have” for Dems, it’s “must have” for Republicans

25:30 If Democrats win once in Texas, it opens the door for more wins

26:45 Two vote margin for the state senate president in North Carolina

27:45 Dan Crenshaw didn’t get Trump endorsement and lost

29:15 Bad developments keep happening for the Republican party

30:15 Trump is only stoking voter skepticism with Iran war

31:30 It’s easy to start a war, it’s hard to end one

32:00 Worst possible start to an election cycle for the Republicans

41:30 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide campaigns in Texas history

43:30 #5 2006 Governor’s race

49:00 #4 1994 Governor’s race

52:00 #3 1924 Governor’s race

55:30 #2 1962 special election for senate

1:00:15 #1 1948 Democratic senate primary

1:07:45 Honorable mentions

1:10:15 Ask Chuck

1:10:30 Take on Pete Hegseth’s briefing on the Iran war? What are the objectives?

1:16:45 Why is a war powers resolution needed? How can congress restrain Trump?

1:20:00 Will this war be better received if not launched during tax season?

1:24:30 Explaining complex political & world events to your kids?

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