Ep. 740: A New Mega Collection with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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The Importance of Thinking Like a Super Forecaster
Super forecasters are less likely, for example, to believe in fate than most citizens. When you remind people of all the flukey circumstances that led them to make an important decision they often think it was meant to be. Super forecasters don't think that way. They think, well, things happen. Something very improbable just happened. Impossible things do sometimes happen. It would be very unlikely if unlikely things never happened. So super forecasters are that way. Rather, I'm a mantic worldview. You're saying, here's what happened. Here's the data. Take your or leave it. If you want to enjoy the benefits of thinking more probabilistically, the book lays
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