The compute and access bottleneck

Ajeya Cotra discusses whether outside groups could afford top models during crunch time and how portfolios might hedge against compute scarcity.

Play episode from 01:42:43

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Episode notes

This cross-post from the 80,000 Hours podcast features Ajeya Cotra in conversation with Rob Wiblin about AI timelines, recursive self-improvement, and the “crunch time” window when AI could rapidly accelerate its own development. Ajeya explains why widespread, compounding automation may face fewer bottlenecks than many expect, and what that could mean for the world by 2050. They also discuss transparency, early warning systems, and the emerging strategy of using each generation of AI to align and control its successors.

LINKS:

Ajeya Cotra podcast episode

Sponsors:

AvePoint:

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CHAPTERS:

(00:00) About the Episode

(04:17) AI inside safety plans

(06:49) AGI growth expectations (Part 1)

(18:32) Sponsors: AvePoint | VCX

(20:54) AGI growth expectations (Part 2)

(21:56) Disagreement and measurement (Part 1)

(37:28) Sponsors: Claude | Tasklet

(41:19) Disagreement and measurement (Part 2)

(41:19) Transparency before takeoff

(58:00) Redirecting AI labor

(01:09:06) Defense plans and limits