The planning fallacy: underestimating time

Hidden cognitive biases quietly sabotage your productivity every day, from the planning fallacy that ruins your schedule to decision fatigue that drains your willpower. In this episode, we explore the psychology behind these mental shortcuts and provide practical systems to beat them. Learn how to recognize traps like anchoring and confirmation bias, and discover simple frameworks—like buffer time and friction reduction—that help you make better choices with less effort.

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Cheat Sheet

• Top 3 Productivity Resources [1:40]
• Why your brain — not your tools — is the real productivity bottleneck [6:55]
• Why spending $40 on tickets might cost you a good night's sleep [8:57]
• The cognitive trap that was wrecking Brooks's sleep before concerts [10:50]
• The billion-dollar version of that thing you do with your gym membership [11:42]
• Why your brain erases all the annoying parts when estimating how long things take [13:27]
• The buffer time trick that turns chaotic schedule blowouts into clean handoffs [21:00]
• Why designing your environment beats relying on willpower every time [23:52]
• What judges reveal about why you make worse decisions after lunch [28:50]
• The counterintuitive reason Brooks banned snacks from his car [31:35]
• The three hidden biases that are skewing your decisions right now [33:19]
• How Thanh uses AI to surface and audit his own past decisions [38:00]

Links

• Shopify
• DripDrop — promo code: TPS for 20% off
• Claude
• 25X Productivity Coaching
• Espresso Display 15.6″
• The Design of Everyday Things — Don Norman
• System Design Interview: An Insider's Guide — Alex Xu
• TPS152: How to Beat Your Brain and Conquer Cognitive Biases
• The Art of Thinking Clearly — Rolf Dobelli

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