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Ep. 298: Emanuel Derman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel's Trend Following

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How to Estimate Risk

I don't think finance has any theories. If you look at efficient market models or black shows, finance models are saying stock prices behave like smoke diffusing and Brownian motion. And those are analogies and they're insightful, but they're not true in the way that Newton's laws are true. So they break down at some point. Now, I think that's the big difference between physics and finance is that physics somehow has this ability because it's dealing with inanimate objects to write down something that works pretty well. And finance can really only make analogies that ultimately fail.

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