Market Mood: Are Multiples Rational?

In this episode of Mostly Growth, the number one podcast in product monetization, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar tackle the “SaaS-pocalypse.” With median EV/NTM revenue multiples grinding to a 10-year low and stocks like Salesforce, Oracle, Figma, and Asana sharply off their peaks, they break down the real bear case: collapsing retention, AI replacing SaaS, and startups outflanking incumbents. Then they explain why renewal rates, Rule of 40 profiles, and first-party data suggest SaaS isn’t dead—just repriced.

SPONSORS:

HockeyStack is an AI platform for modern go-to-market teams that unifies sales, marketing, and customer data into a single system of action. With AI agents that prospect accounts, support reps, improve forecasting, and automate what’s already working, HockeyStack helps teams move faster without guessing. Trusted by companies like RingCentral, Outreach, ActiveCampaign, and Fortune 100 teams—learn more at https://www.hockeystack.com

RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.com

Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities to automating painful procurement workflows and giving you the best market data to turn vendor negotiations in your favor, Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit https://www.tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.

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LINKS: 

Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com

CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/

Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/

Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/

Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/

Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/

https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/the-era-of-capital-intensive-ipos-and-the-14b-ipo-you-probably-forgot-about

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Snowstorm Banter And Shovel Debate

01:47 Is SaaS Dead?

03:27 Zombie Or Thriving

05:15 AI Threat To Project Tools

06:48 Flexible Use Cases As Moat

07:11 DocuSign Debate

08:09 Contract Data As Strategic Asset

08:32 AI Update Spooks Security Stocks

09:06 Sponsors — HockeyStack | RightRev | Tropic

12:47 Market Panic Or Rational?

13:17 SaaS Multiples Hit 3x

15:27 From Revenue To EBITDA Multiples

17:37 DCF And Terminal Value Risk

19:43 Biggest SaaS Selloffs

20:28 Figma Down 80%

21:00 PLG Tools Hit Hardest

21:46 Seat Based Pricing Risk

23:12 Bear Case 3 Assumptions

25:16 AI Still SaaS Delivery

27:32 Incumbents Win With Data

29:48 Adoption Beats Vibe Coding

30:25 Reinventing SaaS In The AI Era

31:09 Build Vs Buy Accountability

32:06 Centralized Data Vs SaaS Stack

33:20 SaaS Sprawl And DIY Chaos

35:24 Vibe Coding Vs Enterprise Compliance

35:42 Cluely Interview Meltdown

37:35 Inside The AI Startup Chaos

#MostlyGrowthPodcast #SaaS #AIinBusiness #ProductLedGrowth #TechStrategy