Surfing Analogy: Timing and Shot Selection

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Tobias Carlisle is founder and portfolio manager of Acquirer’s Funds managing two deep value ETFs, acclaimed author of five investment books including his newest Soldier of Fortune blending Warren Buffett and Sun Tzu’s strategic wisdom, and host of the popular Value After Hours podcast.

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3:00 - Tobias shares his unique upbringing in Australian outback where school ended in grade 10 and included animal husbandry—learning to shear sheep and work cattle in what he calls a formative contrast to his later academic life at boarding school.

6:00 - Transition to law career: Started at a national law firm in April 2000, peak of dot-com bubble. “I missed out on all of the fun parties on the way up and I just saw the carnage on the way down,” which opened his eyes to the importance of cash flow over hype.

9:00 - Early exposure to activist investing: Witnessed corporate raiders targeting dot-coms with cash on balance sheets, killing the business and liquidating or using as platform for acquisitions. This low-downside, high-complexity approach fascinated him.

14:00 - The telecom case study: Worked with two entrepreneurs who turned $100,000 each into a $600 million exit by building dark fiber infrastructure and data centers. “They were the best telecom lawyers in Australia and they weren’t lawyers”—emphasizing the power of combining financial, technological, and regulatory understanding.

28:00 - Philosophy behind Soldier of Fortune: Explores Warren Buffett as risk-taker rather than risk-avoider, connecting his strategic thinking to Sun Tzu’s Art of War. The book examines 13 laws of strategic advantage.

45:00 - Discussion of key laws: “Attack weakness with strength” and “seize the initiative”—Buffett’s approach to investing in moments when he has maximum advantage, like deploying capital during the 2008 crisis.

1:08:00 - The surfing analogy: Experienced investors are “not only on the right wave, but at the right spot on that wave”—getting positioning and timing right rather than just working harder.

1:09:00 - Impact on his own investing: “Shot selection becomes so much better the longer that you do something...if I’m just a little bit more patient, I know that there is a bigger wave coming.”

1:11:30 - Definition of success: “A happy, healthy family and time with my kids...watching them play sport. That’s really my definition of success.”

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Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.

Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.