How to Expect the Unexpected

Kit Yates' 'How to Expect the Unexpected' explores the science behind making predictions and the cognitive biases that distort our expectations.

Drawing on probability theory, statistics, and real-world examples, Yates explains why humans misinterpret randomness, over-apply linear thinking, and draw spurious causal conclusions from coincidences.

The book offers tools to improve forecasting, recognize when prediction is futile, and understand feedback loops like self-fulfilling or self-defeating prophecies.

Through accessible explanations and anecdotes, it aims to make readers more skeptical of intuitive judgments and better at reasoning under uncertainty.

Ultimately, it balances mathematical insight with practical advice for when to predict and when to accept unpredictability.