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Mentioned in 1 episodes
The art of conjecture
Book • 2012
In 'The Art of Conjecture', Bertrand de Jouvenel examines the limits of forecasting and argues that anticipating the future is a speculative art distinct from scientific knowledge.
He distinguishes facta (what is known) from futura (what is yet to happen) and critiques naive extrapolation and historical analogy.
The book proposes cultivating expert judgment and institutionalized conjecture to present policymakers with a range of possible futures.
Emphasizing transparency and prudence, de Jouvenel advocates forums of deliberation to temper mass political volatility.
The work influenced early European futures studies and the creation of Futuribles.
He distinguishes facta (what is known) from futura (what is yet to happen) and critiques naive extrapolation and historical analogy.
The book proposes cultivating expert judgment and institutionalized conjecture to present policymakers with a range of possible futures.
Emphasizing transparency and prudence, de Jouvenel advocates forums of deliberation to temper mass political volatility.
The work influenced early European futures studies and the creation of Futuribles.
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Mentioned in 1 episodes
Mentioned by August and Casper as the author's key work on futuring and the distinction between facta and futura.
History of the Future: Bertrand de Jouvenel
